A significant drop in saffron prices was reported in two Iranian market interviews from the 2018 harvest period. The accounts agreed that seasonal supply and speculative trading were moving the market, but they quoted very different prices. Those figures are historical snapshots, not current saffron prices or a guide to buying, selling or investing today.

Grower and buyer comparing two wholesale saffron lots near harvest

Read together, the reports are most useful for showing why a headline price can be misleading. Date, grade, transaction size, harvest stage, currency and delivery terms all matter before two saffron quotations can be compared.

The first reported price drop

Ali Hosseini, then a member of the National Saffron Council, said prices had fallen by roughly 200,000–300,000 tomans per kilogram over two weeks. He put the market range at approximately 4.6–5.8 million tomans per kilogram.

Hosseini described 4–5 million tomans per kilogram as a “rational” range that could support both growers and export markets. That was his market opinion at the time, not an official floor, guaranteed return or inflation-adjusted value.

He also criticised delays in publishing final production data. An early forecast had put the crop at 360 tonnes, but frost meant the final figure would be lower. Until the harvest was counted, the size of that reduction was uncertain.

On exports, Hosseini said the flow appeared normal and favourable despite customs delays in reporting shipment data. A delay in statistics is not the same as a delay in every shipment, and an apparently normal export process says nothing by itself about the price or margin earned.

The second, lower price account

Mohsen Ehtesham, then vice-president of the National Saffron Council, described a different pre-harvest moment. He reported a drop of 500,000 tomans per kilogram over about 20 days, taking the quoted price to 2.5 million tomans per kilogram as the new crop approached.

Ehtesham said 150 tonnes had been produced in the previous year and expected a larger crop because of favourable weather and growers’ care of saffron corms. He therefore expected additional downward pressure as flowers reached the market.

The 2.5 million and 4.6–5.8 million toman ranges cannot responsibly be merged into one average. The archived reports do not provide enough information about grade, location, wholesale stage or exact transaction date. They may describe different lots or market points, and their publication dates do not prove that every quotation was collected on that date.

Why prices often soften near harvest

Saffron supply arrives in a concentrated season. Many growers need to pay pickers, settle field costs or fund the next stage of production, so more product may be offered soon after harvest. Buyers know this and may wait for fresh supply.

A price fall is not inevitable. Frost, drought or a weak flowering season can reduce output; exporters may be carrying little inventory; or strong orders may absorb the crop. Stored saffron also matters. Product withheld earlier can return to the market at the same time as the new harvest, magnifying a decline.

These are the main questions behind any saffron price report:

  • Is the quotation before, during or after harvest?
  • Does it describe flowers, wet stigmas, dried bulk threads or a packed retail product?
  • Which physical style and tested grade is involved?
  • Is the quantity one kilogram, a large contract or a small consumer pack?
  • Which currency and exchange-rate date apply?
  • Are transport, testing, packaging, tax and payment risk included?

Production forecasts can move the market before they are final

The two interviews illustrate the difference between a forecast and an outcome. A forecast of 360 tonnes influenced expectations even though frost was already expected to lower it. A separate reference to 150 tonnes concerned a previous crop period and cannot be assumed to measure the same geography or methodology.

Growers and traders respond to those expectations before official production is known. If buyers believe output will rise, they may delay purchasing. If later evidence shows frost damage was severe, the direction can reverse. This is why a forecast should always retain its date, source and status.

Was 99% of Iranian saffron organic?

Ehtesham said about 99% of production was effectively organic because saffron farms were generally small, family-run and did not use “toxins.” The claim is too broad to present as verified organic production.

Low chemical use can be a valuable farming characteristic, but “organic” is a controlled market claim. For example, the USDA organic programme requires approved production practices, records, handling controls and certification for most products sold with an organic claim. A farm’s size or a statement that it uses no pesticide does not establish compliance with all those requirements.

The defensible wording is that some Iranian saffron may be grown with limited synthetic inputs, while any organic claim needs evidence appropriate to the market where it is sold.

Iranian origin, Spain and Afghanistan

The source interview said Iran produced 95% of the world’s saffron and alleged that countries such as Spain bought Iranian product and resold it under their own name. It also noted Iranian saffron corms being cultivated in Afghanistan.

Those points reflect a long-running concern about losing origin identity when saffron is exported in bulk. They do not prove that all Spanish-labelled saffron is Iranian or that Afghan cultivation is merely an extension of Iran. Country of cultivation, processing, packing and commercial brand are separate facts and should be labelled truthfully.

FAO’s more recent 2025 overview places Iran at approximately 85–90% of global production. Iran remains the leading producer, but the historical 95% should not be used as a fixed current share.

The fake-saffron warning

Ehtesham warned about false saffron made from dyed plant material. The translated source refers awkwardly to “mud flowers and corn gobs”; the likely materials are safflower petals and corn silk, which can be cut or coloured to imitate threads. Safflower is a real plant with legitimate food uses, but it is not Crocus sativus and must not be sold as saffron.

Colour alone is not enough to authenticate a sample. The Codex saffron standard requires characteristic colour, aroma and flavour, sets physical and chemical criteria, prohibits additives in covered saffron and says there should be no adulteration. Whole threads are easier for a buyer to inspect than powder, but sophisticated substitution still requires laboratory testing.

In 2025, FAO and Mashhad University of Medical Sciences began work on advanced saffron fingerprinting and post-harvest guidance. That approach is stronger than household “tests” that promise certainty from water colour or taste alone.

How to use an old price article safely

The archived toman figures document a volatile season. They can help explain the relationship between harvest expectations, frost, inventory, export demand and speculative dealing, but they cannot answer “What does saffron cost now?”

For a current purchase, compare like with like: the same date, weight, style, tested quality, origin claim and seller terms. Our guide to buying high-quality saffron explains what to check in the product and pack. For a commercial decision, obtain dated quotations and documents from the parties to the transaction.

The lasting lesson from a significant drop in saffron prices is not the old number. It is that a price without its context is not yet useful information.