Factor was the rising cost of saffron

Two buyers comparing saffron lots before agreeing a price per kilogram

The rising cost of saffron described here was a sudden 2015 market move, not a current price quotation. Gholam Reza Miri, then head of the Khorasan Razavi Saffron Exporters Association, argued that the increase made little sense while the new harvest was still arriving and exporters had not yet begun their main purchasing.

His comments are useful as a case study in how a saffron price can move—and why a buyer should never answer “What is the saffron cost per kilo?” with one undated number. Grade, product form, lot size, currency, delivery terms and the point in the supply chain all change the answer.

What happened in the 2015 price episode

Speaking to the Iranian Students News Agency in Khorasan, Miri blamed the short-term volatility on speculators rather than a demonstrated shortage. He said exporters had not yet entered the market to purchase the new crop, while plenty of saffron was expected to arrive during harvest. Some of the product being traded was still stock from previous years.

The report recorded a rise of more than 800,000 tomans per kilogram between Thursday and Saturday. It then said rumours of a sharp fall in production helped push dried saffron to 4.8 million tomans per kilogram, before the quoted level eased to 4.6 million tomans.

Those are historical Iranian wholesale figures. The machine-translated article incorrectly rendered tomans as dollars, which would radically change their meaning. The two endpoints imply a 200,000-toman fall; because the old report contains an inconsistent phrase about the size of that decline, the endpoints are preserved and the disputed figure is not invented.

Miri’s explanation was an opinion, not a proved verdict

Miri said supply and demand should determine the market price, yet called conditions unpredictable. He accused intermediaries of disruptive activity and said rumours had exaggerated the effect of a possible production decline.

The article did not provide order-book data, inventories, named transactions or an enforcement finding. It can establish what the association leader said; it cannot establish that every part of the rise was manipulation. Harvest expectations, old stocks, cash needs, buyer timing and changing demand can overlap, and the relative effect of each requires evidence.

This distinction protects both farmers and buyers. Calling every price rise speculation can hide a real supply or quality constraint. Treating every rumour as a shortage can encourage rushed buying at a level that the physical market does not support.

Why saffron can change price during harvest

Saffron flowers within a compressed seasonal window, but dried lots do not all reach the market on the same day. Farmers need labour for picking and stigma separation; drying, sorting and testing take time. Some households sell quickly to meet expenses, while others can hold correctly dried stock. Exporters may also wait until they can judge volume and quality across several producing areas.

That makes harvest a period of uneven information. A forecast can move expectations before final output is known. A few transactions may be reported as though they represent the entire market. The word “price” may refer to wet flowers, mixed farm-gate saffron, a tested bulk lot or a packaged retail product, even though those are not comparable goods.

Quality integrity matters too. The current Codex saffron standard distinguishes filaments, cut filaments and powder and sets provisions for quality, purity, hygiene and labelling. A documented lot that meets an agreed specification is not interchangeable with an untested mixed lot merely because both weigh one kilogram.

How to compare saffron cost per kilo correctly

A useful kilogram quotation needs a minimum set of facts:

Form: whole filaments, cut filaments or powder;
Specification: the agreed grade or analytical limits and the laboratory evidence supporting them;
Lot size: a one-kilogram sample, a larger wholesale shipment or the equivalent of many retail jars;
Price basis: farm gate, processor, exporter, landed wholesale or retail;
Currency and date: including the exchange rate used and how long the offer remains valid;
Delivery terms: packaging, freight, insurance, customs, tax and payment terms; and
Traceability: origin, harvest/lot identity and records that follow the physical product.

Without those details, two per-kilo prices can differ for legitimate reasons. Multiplying the shelf price of a one-gram jar by 1,000 usually overstates a bulk kilogram because it repeats the cost of small containers, labels, handling and retail margins. Dividing a customs value by reported kilograms produces a trade unit value, not a current offer for a particular grade.

World Bank WITS data, sourced from UN Comtrade, illustrates the point. It reports aggregate trade value and net weight under HS 091020. The resulting value per kilogram combines many lots, qualities, contract dates and delivery terms. It is useful for comparing trade patterns, but not for quoting a customer or valuing a farmer’s parcel.

The proposed saffron bank

Asked why authorities had not stabilised the market, Miri replied that market regulation could not be achieved with “empty hands” and speeches. He referred to a long-discussed saffron bank or reserve that, in his description, would purchase product at an assessed price, store it and release stock gradually when the market needed supply.

The objective was to reduce distress selling at harvest and avoid a sudden shortage later. Yet the bank did not exist with reserves when he spoke. The article records a proposal, not a service available today.

A reserve also creates hard design questions. Who grades the incoming saffron? How is ownership recorded? Who bears storage loss and financing cost? What rule triggers a purchase or release? How are decisions published so the reserve does not favour one trader? A buffer can only improve confidence when its quality controls, accounts and release rules are transparent.

What a current buyer should do instead of relying on the old price

Do not convert the 2015 figures into another currency and call the result today’s saffron price. Inflation, exchange rates, crop conditions, grade and market structure have all changed. Even a current online number may describe a different pack size or quality.

For a live comparison, request a dated written offer for the same specification and delivery basis from each supplier. Ask for the lot’s form, net weight, test evidence, packing format, origin and Incoterm. If you are comparing retail units, compare the final usable quantity and all delivery costs. For a current company quotation rather than a historical benchmark, consult the saffron price page and confirm the scope of the offer.

What the old volatility still teaches

The 2015 movement from 4.8 million to 4.6 million tomans per kilogram does not tell us what saffron costs now. It shows how quickly a thin, seasonal market can react to rumours when final harvest information and buyer activity are incomplete.

The safest response is not to pretend the market never moves. It is to make each price comparable: name the date, currency, product, quality evidence, quantity and delivery basis. Once those facts are visible, buyers can distinguish a genuine change in value from a change in wording—or from a number that was never comparable in the first place.